My New Blog

Unfortunately, we do not have the luxury of instant knowledge. The MLS sales data represents closed transactions. The closing date is usually 45 – 60 days after the sales contract. So we’re looking back about two months. Here are some interesting figures:

	Number	Median	Sales
	of Sold	Sellling	Volume
	Listings	Price	($Thousand)
Jan-05	138	$206,500	$35,812.00
Feb-05	148	$186,500	$35,340.00
Mar-05	215	$204,000	$55,598.00
Apr-05	261	$205,000	$68,296.00
May-05	268	$209,900	$70,472.00
Jun-05	337	$214,900	$87,993.00
Jul-05	312	$232,000	$86,904.00
Aug-05	304	$230,500	$86,329.00
Sep-05	266	$231,750	$70,578.00
Oct-05	264	$240,500	$73,445.00
Nov-05	213	$239,900	$61,405.00
Dec-05	174	$259,950	$58,030.00
Jan-06	141	$252,250	$43,855.00
Feb-06	119	$259,900	$35,265.00
Mar-06	165	$245,000	$49,974.00
Apr-06	134	$258,000	$40,726.00
May-06	183	$255,000	$55,267.00
Jun-06	194	$247,000	$56,801.00
Jul-06	144	$237,250	$40,559.00
Aug-06	144	$237,250	$40,526.00
Sep-06	135	$250,000	$37,915.00
Oct-06	134	$245,677	$41,348.00
Nov-06	89	$225,000	$23,754.00
Dec-06	104	$229,500	$29,290.00
Jan-07	110	$220,000	$34,295.00
Feb-07	118	$222,000	$34,584.00
Mar-07	108	$235,950	$29,447.00

The chart shows the number of homes sold, the median price (half sold above the median, half sold below) and the total dollar value of all transactions. It indicates that the number of transactions and the total sales volume are leading indicators. They peak 5 to 7 months before the selling price. Armed with this new knowledge, we might think we would have 6 months to sell our property after noticing that the leading indicators had topped out. Wrong. Look at the chart. The number of sold listings topped out in June ’05. But we wouldn’t have known it was the peak until we had seen the July and August numbers (they might have been higher). If we looked at the sales volume numbers, we couldn’t have been certain until September or October. The selling price peaked between December ’05 to February ’06. But these numbers represent sales contracts signed in the October ’05 to December ’05 timeframe.

What I’m trying to say is that to have timed the market perfectly, you would have listed your property in August ’05. To receive the highest price, you would have had to have a contract, at the latest, by December ’05. Fat chance. I’m sure there is someone out there who nailed it. I, on the other hand, purchased one of my investment properties in August ’05, and then spent three months rehabbing it before listing it. By the way, I still own it.

Back to the chart. Both the number of homes sold and the total dollar numbers bottomed out in November. The selling price for March (through the 27^th) shows a slight turnaround. If my analysis is correct, we could be on the way back up.

The other two market segments that I track closely, Palm Coast lots, and Flagler County condominiums still look anemic. The median price for Palm Coast lots has dropped to $50,000. Some builders have told me that they are buying lots for less than $40,000. But the listing price of most Palm Coast lots remains well above the current market.

Condominiums represent the weakest sector. As of March 27, MLS data shows:

• 43 Surf Club units for sale at a median price of $539,000. Only one Surf Club unit has sold within the last six months for $470,000.
• 58 Canopy Walk units are available at a median price of $399,000. There was one sale within the last six months for $238,000.
• 101 Hammock Dunes units are listed at a median price of $1,150,000 (including Arezzo, Cambria, Casa Bella, La Grande Provence, Le Jardin, Protofino, Savona, Tuscany, and Viscaya). During the last six months, seven units sold with the median selling price $885,000.
• 23 Hammock Beach Villas are currently available – median price $719,000. No Hammock Beach Villas have sold within the last six months.
• 63 Cinnamon Beach condos are available at a median price of $759,000. In the last six months, 3 units sold at a median price of $735,000.
• There are only 3 units available at the Aliki Gold Coast, median price $525,000, far below the price of recent sales. Two units sold at a median price of $335,000 in the last six months.

My analysis - The single family housing market in Flagler County has bottomed out and is showing signs of an upturn. For those sitting on the sidelines with cash, the next six months represent a great opportunity, but don’t wait too long. Palm Coast lot sellers need to adjust their pricing to align with current selling prices. So do condominium sellers. Palm Coast lot sales will bottom out within the next 2 – 4 months. Condos are more difficult to predict. If you are a condo seller, either drop your price or decide you are in for the long term – (15 to 24 months).